The GOP’s Uneasy California Strongholds, Part 3

Congressional District 04

Tom McClintock

Jessica Morse

Read Kelly Candaele’s What Do the Suburbs Want?

District Terrain: Sacramento Suburbs, Gold Country.

Facts: This is Trump Country.

Incumbent: Tom McClintock.

Challenger:  Jessica Morse.

Large Financial Backers: Koch Industries, AT&T, Gap Inc. (McClintock). Labor PACs, Democratic Party PACs, individual donors (Morse).

Issues: The economy, immigration, wildfire spending.

Takeaways: Gold Country counties are recipients of an urban exodus fueled by affordable housing, a desire for good schools and the expansion of high-tech jobs into suburbia.

Polling: McClintock is so universally presumed to be winning that no polls have been undertaken in this district, but traditional prognosticators (Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball) say this will be a likely win for the incumbent.

Key Endorsements: National Rifle Association, Americans for Legal Immigration, California Pro-Life Council (McClintock). Sacramento Bee, Emily’s List, Giffords (Morse).

Challenger’s Chances: McClintock was a late add to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s original list of seven flippable GOP congressional districts in California that had gone for Hillary Clinton. Nearly a year after his addition, the DCCC’s targeting of CA 04 seems like wishful thinking – McClintock is predicted to win handily.

From Candaele’s story: “The key geographic areas where the majority of voters live, and where elections are won or lost, are found along the I-80 and I-50 corridors — places whose dairy farms and orchards not too long ago reached to the outskirts of Sacramento. The cows have been replaced by ‘Tuscan’-style housing estates with names like Serrano Village.”