Climate + Young Voters = Biden Victory, Right? It’s More Complicated Than That.

It seems like a simple political calculus.

Young Americans overwhelmingly cite climate change as one of their chief concerns, motivating them to turn out to the polls in this year’s elections. President Biden, who is responsible for the biggest climate solutions investment in the country’s history, is trusted more than Donald Trump by voters to tackle the climate crisis. Biden is likely to need the support of young voters to win what is expected to be an extremely competitive rematch with Trump this November. Climate + young voters = Biden victory, no?

But the math is actually a little more complicated than that. Each of those three theses could be correct, and yet it’s not clear if Biden can count on climate-conscious young voters for him to win reelection for a variety of reasons, from failing to appreciate the administration’s climate accomplishments, disenchantment over energy policies that encourage more fossil-fuel production, cynicism over politics in general and anger over Biden’s stance on the conflict in Gaza, among other issues.
 

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Youth who cite climate change as one of their top concerns were 20% more likely to vote in 2024 than those focused on other concerns. And those climate-focused voters are much more likely — by a 65% to 5% margin — to prefer a Democratic presidential candidate than a Republican, according to a survey by the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts’ Jonathan M. Tisch College of Civic Life.

But it’s the Biden factor that could complicate things — and recent numbers are sobering for his supporters. Trump is ahead of Biden by 2% among millennial and Gen-Z Americans, per a recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll. And the president is only at 50% support among Americans under 30, according to national and swing state polls by The Wall Street Journal.

That’s partly due to the fact that the climate is just one of many concerns for voters and that so few know about — or fully appreciate — Biden’s climate record. Among registered voters surveyed by Yale University, 41% said they knew “nothing at all” about the massive $390 billion Inflation Reduction Act, which has decreased energy costs and helped spur the expansion of renewable energy sources. It is the largest single piece of federal legislation ever to address the climate crisis. 

Informing voters about these accomplishments has made a big difference — with Biden’s approval rating for responding to climate change and the environment dramatically improving when survey respondents learn more about Biden’s climate action.

But getting them to vote is the big challenge. That’s one of the priorities of the Environmental Voter Project, which is nonpartisan but is focused on getting nearly 5 million climate-focused Americans who haven’t voted in an election in the last four years to turn out in 2024. The vast majority of those voters are under the age of 34, says organization’s founder and executive director, Nathaniel Stinnett.

Anger over Biden’s continued military support of Israel in a military offensive that Gaza’s health ministry says has killed more than 33,000 Palestinians in Gaza since October, has added another hurdle. In the recent Democratic primary election in Colorado, one of the states targeted by the Environmental Voter Project, voters who chose “uncommitted” rather than Biden represented 9% of the vote.

“Young voters are not a monolith by any means,” said Jack Lobel of Voters of Tomorrow, which seeks to empower young people to vote. “We are not voting on one issue or another, [but] who will fight for the best future for us, and for a lot of voters, that becomes who is going to deliver on climate action.”

Support for Biden can’t be taken for granted, say young voters upset about the administration’s ongoing approval of oil and gas drilling projects on public lands. Aru Shiney-Ajay, executive director of the Sunrise Movement, a youth-driven climate advocacy group, sees the uncommitted movement as a “warning shot to Joe Biden” over climate, as well as Gaza. “There’s an opportunity to call for a permanent ceasefire, and there’s also an opportunity to declare a climate emergency and pass a lot of sweeping executive actions to stop the climate crisis. The window is still there to take those actions.”

Beyond that criticism is cynicism about politicians in general. “So many of our politicians take millions of dollars from oil and gas executives,” said Shiney-Ajay, adding that such contributions often trump popular support for climate policies. Her group is focused on supporting progressive politicians who have strong climate agendas and is focusing on U.S. Senate races in Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania, among others.

The disenchantment with their choices for the presidential election has some young voters looking at other races, such as those for Congress and their own state representatives. “As a new voter, climate change is a large priority for me in local and state elections, and I am not alone,” said Sophie Donnellan, a 21-year-old Stanford University student.

Some young voters are taking it a step further and running for office themselves. Joe Vogel, 27, won a seat in Maryland’s House of Delegates in 2022 and is now running for Congress to represent the state’s 6th Congressional District. He voted last year to fund climate start-ups, and climate action is one of his top campaign priorities. In California, climate activist Cheyenne Hunt is the only Gen-Z American running for Congress, to represent the state’s 45th District in inland Orange County, and has made climate action a big part of her campaign and has taken part in sustainability forums.

The key role of young voters is recognized by climate investors such as Ian Simmons, whose family investment organization Blue Haven Initiative has funded early-stage climate start-ups. “The biggest investment that climate investors should be making is in young voters,” he said, explaining that the Inflation Reduction Act would not have been possible without the turnout of young voters in 2020 for Biden. “There are hundreds of climate solutions and projects happening around the country because young voters showed up.”

For Simmons, the big challenge is getting voters to the polls. He said one solution has been for colleges to integrate voter registration into the school’s registration process, which he says has proved to dramatically increase election turnout by those students.

“The more they show up to vote, the more politicians will pay attention to them. And it’s critical for politicians to be accountable to young voters for climate policy to happen.”

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